Monday, August 31, 2009

Mitt Update

No time to lay down too much commentary with this one, sorry, but I thought I'd pass along an article from the Boston Globe (of all places) about Mitt Romney's current political "state" and what that looks like for his potential presidential campaign in 2012.

The article points out that Mitt's hesitant to participate in this type of article as he's unwilling for now to acknowledge or encourage discussion of his 2012 candidacy, so the best they've been able to do is use staffers and the like as sources, but here are some highlights:

Candidacy is unofficial until after the 2010 elections.

He's considering dispensing completely with the Iowa primary and instead focusing completely on New Hampshire.

Whoever takes second in the Republican primaries typically gets the party's endorsement for the next election. Didn't know that.

Also, the author's take from GOP up-and-ups is that the Republicans lost the election by trying to make it more about values than competence. Why on Earth Mitt and his staff decided to take this approach is beyond me. In the face of a young, inexperienced opposition who is tapping into values, and in the face of a world that requires a pragmatic approach to problem-solving, why Mitt sold himself short (and the GOP generally) is beyond me.

I hope that for the 2010, Congressional GOPers hammer hard a conservative solution set for the economy, the war, and if they must, health care.

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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Clunkers Crashes

As you may have heard, the Cash for Clunkers program ended today. The news outlets are all calling it "wildly successful". And I suppose for the consumer it was a good opportunity to get into a new set of wheels. Of course, two years from now we will probably be bailing out motorists who bought cars they could not afford, but that is another story, for another day.

What is entirely unsurprising about the Cash for Clunkers program is that Uncle Sam is having trouble paying off the loans he promised to the nations car dealers. Many dealers are now cash strapped after selling cars for prices far lower than would sustain the business, counting on the government (you) to take the $4,500 hit. Some dealerships are reporting millions of dollars that are unaccounted for. If those loans are not repaid quickly what will happen? Oh, right, dealerships will lay off employees, or in some cases, simply close down. Hope and Change just does not seem all it was cracked up to be. In fact, I'd say the American public was sold a lemon.

And now, the quote of the day, from the WSJ:

...The program is another bow to the now-reigning Washington policy illusion that the key to prosperity is force-feeding consumer spending, rather than creating incentives for Americans to invest and take risks.

We keep hearing this is a brave new era of public confidence in the virtues of government planning. But the lesson of cash for clunkers is that if this government can't manage a free lunch, it can hardly be trusted to decide whether you can have a hip replacement, and how much it will pay for it.

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Must See

You guys have to go through this, it is amazing.

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Monday, August 24, 2009

What do you get when you raise taxes on the rich?

The rich take their 15 billion dollars in taxable income and leave. I hope this illustrates the point that economists and those on the right have been trying to make ever since labor has been mobile...


A stream of hedge-fund managers and other financial-services professionals are quitting the U.K., following plans to raise top personal tax rates to 51%.

Lawyers estimate hedge funds managing close to $15 billion have moved to Switzerland in the past year, with more possibly to come. David Butler, founder of professional-services firm Kinetic Partners, said his company had advised 23 hedge funds on leaving the U.K. in the 15 months to April. An additional 15 are close to quitting the U.K., he said.

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Sunday, August 23, 2009

Just Say No

As a parent I find this study fascinating. You might too, even if you aren't a parent.

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Friday, August 21, 2009

Obama Gets a Raise

Remember during the campaign when Barack Obama was asked about the human rights of babies, and he famously answered that “… whether you’re looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity … is above my pay grade.”?

Apparently the president has received a raise that goes above and beyond just the increase in salary that came with his new job. This week, while speaking to several Jewish Rabbis, Mr. Obama said that "We are God's partners in matters of life and death".

And just in case you are only skimming this blog post, I want to repeat that quote, for emphasis:

"We are God's partners in matters of life and death."

All the messianic hyperbole about Barack Obama, turns out, is true. He actually believes he is, and I will just quote him again, "God's partner in matters of life and death."

No, Mr. President, you are not God's partner. Nobody truly is. When it comes to "matters of life and death" what role could a politician play that would be anything close to appropriate, helpful, or comforting? Life and death is, naturally, something sacred and individual. If an ego maniacal amateur, such as yourself Mr. President, really believes himself to be a partner with Divinity, what is to stop you from requiring people (those you deem worthy) to have children, or preventing others (the unfit and stupid of course, and again according to your standards) from doing so? What is to stop you from arbitrarily choosing people for elimination (the old, infirm, or conservatives), all in the name of saving money and "the greater good"?

Am I being a fear monger by bringing up such outrageous scenarios? Perhaps. But when an elected official assumes any role in "matters of life and death" I cringe. When he claims to be a partner with God in those matters, alarm bells start to ring in every corner of my, albeit warped and delusional, brain.

God operates on his own timetable, and within his own purposes. In a nation that is still overwhelmingly populated with a religious people, you may want to tread carefully when claiming partnership with God in matters of life and death – a claim that not even religious institutions make so brazenly.

We may all want to take a step back, and really try to figure out what Obama means when he says "reform".

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Thursday, August 20, 2009

What Was It Like?

I get asked that question a lot now that I've had a child born here in the UK. People suddenly are very curious about health care in the UK. I saw this in the Best of the Web column last night as well, which made me chuckle a little.

"A young mother gave birth on a pavement outside a hospital after she was told to make her own way there," reports London's Daily Mail:
Mother-of-three Carmen Blake called her midwife to ask for an ambulance when she went into labour unexpectedly with her fourth child.
But the 27-year-old claims she was refused an ambulance and told to walk the 100m from her house in Leicester to the city's nearby Royal Infirmary.
Her daughter Mariah was delivered on a pavement outside the hospital by a passer-by, just before ambulance crews arrived.
The Daily Telegraph, meanwhile, reports on how the National Health Service treated an older patient:
A family has won £130,000 from an NHS trust after it refused to pay for their mother's care fees, claiming her Alzheimer's was not a health issue.
NHS Worcestershire ruled that Judith Roe, 74, did not qualify for NHS funding because her condition was a "social" rather than "health" problem, even though she was so ill she could not make a cup of tea and regularly left the stove on.
She was forced to sell her £200,000 home to pay her £600-a-week nursing home fees, which would have been funded if she had been categorised correctly.
Mrs Roe's family appealed to the Health Service Ombudsman, which ruled that Mrs Roe's assessment had been incorrect and her treatment should have been funded by the NHS. NHS Worcestershire has now reimbursed them for six years of care.
April Fool! argues former Enron adviser Paul Krugman:
In Britain, the government itself runs the hospitals and employs the doctors. We've all heard scare stories about how that works in practice; these stories are false. Like every system, the National Health Service has problems, but over all it appears to provide quite good care while spending only about 40 percent as much per person as we do.
So don't worry. Even if ObamaCare denies you the medical treatment you need, your story will be false.


Often when I heard hard luck cases or anecdotal experience I chalked it up as just that. I even wrote on this blog in the past about some of my colleagues negative experiences. Rather than recount my own views of the birth, I thought I'd just share with you what my wife posted on her blog. Sorry, but it is going to be long.

- At prenatal checks they never weigh you. I had to request to check my weight a couple times just because I was curious. So I don't even know how much weight I put on this pregnancy!

- Most women never see an OB/GYN - you are seen by the community midwives for all your checkups. You would only have an OB if you are an at-risk pregnancy or would be having a scheduled c-section.

- They don't check dilation/effacement until you are in active labor; leaving you with no clue when the baby may come!

- The prenatal checkup schedule is much less frequent than in the US. Even at the end of pregnancy you only see the midwife every-other week.

- When I had my glucose tolerance test they have you buy your own "gatorade" and bring it to the lab to drink for the test.

- They asked me if I'd like to have a home birth, and they're actually pretty common here. I said "NO" - I'd much rather have all the equipment and help that a hospital has...oh, and I don't want to have to buy a new bed after delivering the baby in it!

- I don't think I saw any computers in the hospital while I was there. I am so used to seeing a computer with monitors in every labor room, plus several at the nurses' station for charting. Everything is charted on these little blue notes that you carry around with you during your pregnancy and while you are at the hospital.

- While in labor, they don't have monitors to check the baby's heart rate or your contractions. The midwife would occasionally put a doppler on my tummy to listen to the baby's heartbeat, but nothing continuous, and as I said before, no computer read-out or printed reading.

- The doctor on the delivery unit placed my IV for my antibiotics - and totally missed the first time - badly! I still have an ugly, huge bruise. Good thing I was in labor so the pain was minor in comparison!

- The bed I was in for delivery had no pillows, the left stirrup was broken, and it took 2 midwives the better part of 5 minutes to figure out how to put the bed together. Maybe they should not use that room next time!!

- They offer Nitrous Oxide as a method of pain relief. I used some while I was being stitched up and I really think it was just oxygen. It did NOTHING! The only benefit was that you suck it out of this plastic mouthpiece, so I was able to bite on that while the doctor (same one who botched my arm!) was taking his sweet time with the stitching - oh, and not numbing me up properly. He kept saying "This would be a lot better if you had an epidural" - um yeah! You're telling me!! As you can see, I was not impressed with this doctor...maybe it's a good thing I didn't get an epidural...if he was administering it I may be paralyzed!

- My midwife Tina was amazing. She was so kind and really helped me to calm down while experiencing my very quick, unexpected, natural delivery. There was no "team" of doctors and nurses in the room when Ellie was born like in the US - just Tina and Ryan. It's a good thing Ryan wanted to cut the umbilical cord, because if he didn't do it I don't think there would have been enough hands to manage it all!

- They don't give you a hospital gown! You are told to "bring your own clothes to deliver in". Minutes before Ellie was born I finally took my pants off and my new baby was placed on the very shirt I wore into the hospital. Afterwards you just wear your own clothes or a nightgown. I'm a pj pants girl, so I had to go out and buy a nightgown especially for the occasion.

- I wasn't stitched up after the delivery for what seemed like a very long time (long enough to call both our families) - I was telling the midwives that it must not be too bad a tear or I would be losing a lot of blood!

- Babies aren't measured for length. I asked why and was told that "length doesn't matter" so they don't do it. Everything has to be very cost-effective in a national healthcare setting; length doesn't have any particular health implications, so they don't check it.

- You can leave the hospital any time you want after delivery (as long as everything checks out okay). I had a roommate (yes, a roommate - more of that to come) who delivered a baby at 4am and was gone before noon.

- There is no baby nursery, which means they don't bathe the baby after the birth, and don't keep them in there while you sleep. You have to keep your baby with you 24/7 - if you go into the bathroom you just wheel your baby along with you.

- They don't give you any diapers, wipes, onesies, or pads in the hospital - bring your own!

- I was lucky to snag 1 of 2 private rooms in the "mother/baby" unit (someone tipped us off beforehand that we could at least try and ask for one), but sadly was moved that first night because someone needed the room more. My new room was a big room that can hold SIX moms and their babies, only divided by curtains, with the bathroom down the hall. Luckily, there was no one else in there when I first came in, and at most there were 3 of us - but still slightly uncomfortable nonetheless. No privacy, and I felt badly when Ellie would cry knowing that she was probably waking up someone else's baby. Utah Valley hospital is like a hotel compared to the hospital here!

- When you come home from the hospital, midwives come to your house to check up on you and the baby 1 day, 5 days, and 10 days later. They see how everything is going, how you are healing, weigh the baby, and answer any questions. I LOVE this! It's very reassuring to be able to ask questions and make sure you are doing things right; I think I question myself more this time around because I'm always comparing the 2 kids.


When does it shift from anecdotal experience to, "That's just how government run health care is manifested?"

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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Mormonism vs. Democracy & Capitalism

On an almost daily basis here at TTKS we are debating the merits of, and the varying opinions on, democracy and capitalism. Occasionally, science and sports and personal finance will wiggle their way into our conversation as well. Interestingly, religion is (or can be) a major part of our lives and how our religious beliefs conflict with or support our beliefs in science, democracy, and capitalism is a conversation we’ve never overtly entertained on the blog.

When my well-read mom passed along an essay-speech from a relatively prominent Mormon, Richard Bushman, about just such a discussion, I was motivated to post the link here and open up the dialogue on the blog.

Bushman wrote one of the best biographies I’ve ever read on the first Mormon Prophet Joseph Smith. He is a very intelligent and wise voice for Mormonism. In this speech he grapples with three of societies major cultural formations which I already listed, and how Mormonism justifies its coexistence with these formations. (Disclaimer: Bushman, to my knowledge, is a Mormon in good standing, but that fact should not mean he speaks for the Church or that his words are doctrine.) For the sake of space and time, and general interest of the blog, I will only focus on the democracy and capitalism portion of his speech.

Some thoughts and highlights:

Democracy


Mormons have a much more ambiguous relationship with democracy than we do with science. We are both the most democratic of churches and the most authoritarian. We are democratic in our distribution of priesthood widely among the laiety and the elimination of a clerical class; we are authoritarian in our investment of great power in the president of the Church whom we accord access to God.

Given these stark oppositions and contradictions, how are Mormons to relate to democracy? Should we embrace it or keep our distance? Should we resign ourselves to living by different sets of rules in the two realms?

Equality does not obtain anywhere. Inequalities appear wherever you look. Our society seems dedicated to constructing more and more of them–among sports teams as among contestants on tv shows about cooking or hairstyling. We rank students according to their test scores and rank the colleges that they so desperately seek to enter. We rank each other by our publications and award the best positions in the best colleges to the best people. We rank cars and computers. From the moment children are born they are ranked on a weight and development scale. In every aspect of life we impose hierarchy.

Against this overwhelming trend can we really hope to achieve equality? Equality before the law we would hope, and some degree of equal opportunity, but flat out equality in every relationship goes against the world as we know it. The most serious attempts to achieve complete equalization have ended in violence.



And I think this is one of my biggest beefs with the equality movement and with Barack Obama. We cannot achieve perfect equality in circumstance, in compensation, in lifestyle. To strive to make us all equal in those things (and others) is to me an experiment in dehumanization. It’s even below animal level since even the most “unsmart” of species is stratified by “survival of the fittest.”

On the contrary, in some ways we should embrace hierarchy.


Mormons believe in the universe described in the book of Abraham where from the beginning there were gradations of intelligence rising from the lowest to the highest. On Abraham’s account, the whole universe is at its foundation hierarchical. How does this compare to the American conception of each citizen standing on a flat plane of perfect equality? No one rises up to high office without permission of every equal citizen on the plane. Each being is created equal according our Declaration of Independence.

I don’t consider the Abraham passage on ranked intelligence to be inherently oppressive, especially not in the Mormon context of a father God whose whole aim is to make all his children like himself. He wants them to achieve a fullness, to grow from grace to grace. Yes, there is structural hierarchy and authority, but not necessarily oppression. The fact that humans use inequality to exercise dominion oppressively does not in itself discredit hierarchy on principle. The answer is not to eradicate power but to use it beneficently. The whole gospel may be about how to exercise power without compulsory means.



Touche.

Capitalism



We must keep in mind that capitalism is godless. It does not explicitly repudiate faith in God as communism did, but it does not include faith as one of the virtues of a successful investor, executive or worker. In some cases it has overtly encouraged rugged individualism as a way of life in direct opposition to the communal service called for by the gospel. The official capitalist view of religion is indifference. You can believe or not as you wish. No religion is inserted into its rituals like ground breakings or the closing of deals. No deal-maker’s tombstone mentions God’s help. Religious symbolism is stripped away for fear of offending potential customers. Faithful Christians or Jews may thrive as businessmen, but they deal every day with agnostics who care not a fig about God. Workers in corporate offices live in a godless environment which leads them to privatize their religion. The atmosphere does nothing to reinforce belief.

We must also recognize that corporate values invade our families in the form of consumerism. Buying things, finding deep satisfactions in shopping and owning, is an integral component of capitalism. Capitalism will not work without ardent consumerism. When you combine the whole family’s wish for things with the corporation’s control over promotions and the time of workers, capitalist values can be seen to have infiltrated a large part of our lives. Our sense of worth and our basic confidence to a remarkable degree are formed and regulated by capitalistic values and institutions.

Capitalism is all the more insidious because it promotes virtues that we admire like hard work and attendance to duty. We feel like getting ahead in the corporate world parallels our improvement as persons. When we succeed in some measure in our work, we have demonstrated our virtue.



Whoa! This isn't the kind of thing typically posted on TTKS!

For those of us who understand Mormonism, we know he makes a truthful argument from the perspective of Mormon doctrine. And as I am certainly one who believes capitalism to be the best economic system in the history of the world, I find much of what he says here to cause significant internal conflict.

However, I don’t think Bushman’s argument is complete. Capitalism allows for agency, which is a core truth and principle in Mormonism. We are free to choose – in both religion and business and everywhere else – and capitalism is built on that same principle.

Furthermore, just because capitalism provides opportunities to sin (overindulge, commit adultery, replace God, etc), as Bushman intimates, doesn’t mean the system is evil or unbecoming. It’s like writing off all technology because evil and distasteful activities or messages can be experienced through said technologies.

Is that a justification for my capitalistic beliefs?

I consider Bushman a hero of mine in many respects and I always come away from reading his words with my mind dissecting my belief system. But I'm not always in agreement with him.

Thanks to Bushman we can attempt to keep score of democracy and capitalism through the lens of religion.

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Investors v. Speculators and Traders??

First off, I'm conflicted about something. As a Western Division rival, I hate Mark Cuban. I find him annoying and overly bombastic. That being said, if he suddenly wanted to relocate to Los Angeles and buy the Lakers before Dr. Buss becomes the new Steinbrenner, I'd welcome him with open arms. Distaste aside, I'm fascinated by his blog more often than not.

He posted today about the economy and brought up a take that I hadn't heard before on one type of regulation the government could change that would benefit things.

Our government doesn’t know the difference between an investor and a speculator or trader. If we did, we would understand that we should tax the trader/speculator more heavily than the investor.

The investor allows entrepreneurs access to capital and allows them to work with it and build businesses, which in turn build employment and do great things for the economy. The trader/speculator pushes companies to make more money now rather than invest in doing the right thing for the company. The trader/speculator dominates the stock market today, which in turn puts pressure on public company CEOs to cut jobs and play games with their financials in order to give the appearance of stability in a far from stable market. The investor understands the bigger picture and is ok if profits fall for several quarters or even several years as long as the company will maximize its return over the long run.


He goes on to suggest that tax law should be changed to put a greater tax on short term capital gains, particularly those held for less than 24 hours or other ridiculously low periods of time and reduce the tax on long term cap gains. The idea is that you create an incentive towards forward-thinking and long-term goals on the executive level as there is a greater incentive for investors to be thinking that way as well.

Though I've taken basic tax law and so understand the proposal on its face, I'm afraid I'm a bit out of my league as to how this would play out. It seems reasonable, though, that there's an inherent difference between someone who invests in a company and quickly sells as part of an aggressive plan to profit from as many similar transactions as possible than someone who's in a company for the long haul. The difference in accountability required is staggering on its face, but I'd like some thoughts from you all on this.

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Monday, August 17, 2009

Thank You, Mr. President

Barack Obama held a meeting in Grand Junction, CO recently. After his prepared, telegraphed remarks he took questions. One college student spoke up, and absolutely owned Barack Obama:

My question is this. And also, I'd love to have a debate, just all out, anytime, Oxford-style, if you'd like. (Laughter.) I understand -- I'm willing to do that. But my question is this. We all know the best way to reduce prices in this economy is to increase competition. How in the world can a private corporation providing insurance compete with an entity that does not have to worry about making a profit, does not have to pay local property taxes -- (applause) -- they do not have to -- they're not subject to local regulations? How can a company compete with that?


The president fumbled and stumbled, as he usually does when the TelePrompTer is shut off. But in the midst of his rambling he admitted, no doubt unwittingly, that government participation in the free market has been a failure, and cannot compete in the market:

...And in fact, right now you've got a lot of private companies who do very well competing against the government. UPS and FedEx are doing a lot better than the post office. (Applause.)

No, they are...


Yes indeed Mr. President. Thank you for pointing out the obvious.

Why then, would we want the government, who cannot even compete in the simple business of delivering packages to be involved, even more than they already are, in the complex business of health care? (Or auto-sales, banking, insurance, and so forth)

In answer to that question, I'll quote the president again, although slightly out of context, and yet, I think it fits:

"...my argument won't make sense."

Exactly.

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Sunday, August 16, 2009

I'd Rather Paddy Harrington Had Won

ESPN.com's Bob Harig said it in an interesting kind of way:

The biggest threats come from those who are household names only in their own households, who are given odds of prevailing that are longer than Lake Superior, who somehow muster the moxie at the moment when others melt.

I know, right?

I for one was rooting for Paddy Harrington. Don't get me wrong. I'm a Level One Tiger-phile. I love watching him when he's on, and as much as I love golf and as much as I think I love professional golf, when Tiger misses the cut or is lagging through the weekend, I start to tune out. I'd rather go work on my short game for what smidgeon of free time I can carve out of my weekend.

But that being said, this year's batch of major winners (Cabrera, Glover, Cink, and Yang, does absolutely nothing to heighten the interest level in the "not Tiger" batch of golfers. I was explaining to my sister in law today (bless her for attempting to show interest in golf) how often the discussion is simply "Tiger versus the Field" and she was blown away that someone could be that good.

Come on, "rest of the field"! Man up! Yang said in his interview that he actually visualized and practiced scenarios in which he might be forced to play against Tiger on a Sunday. Rory Sab and Sergio have proven themselves to be inferior challengers despite their cloud talking about Tiger's weaknesses. Retief, Vijay in your day, and Phil (come on, Phil), Paddy, Lee, any of you! I know that it makes you feel better to try and pretend that "you're just there to play your own game," and "Tiger's great--a heck of a golfer. I'm just here to try and bring my best game and see what happens," but how about showing some tenacity.

Where you be, guys? Don't you want to balance your efforts at tweaking your game at your own pace to be tempered by that desire to beat the best? Didn't Rocky stare at that black and white picture of Drago every day he trained? I just don't get the vibe that they're like that. I'm sure they want to win. I'm sure they're happy to make lots and lots of money, also. Maybe that coupled with the professional athlete's requisite ego makes them refuse to acknowledge that they all wanted to do what Yang did today: face Tiger's intimidating mantra of never having lost a major while having at least a share of the lead going into Sunday and win. No flinching. But take it from him.

And now they can't. Even if one of them does some day, Yang did it first and today will always be the tipping point. More than likely, some upstart in 2021 will finally do it again when commentators can write it off to Tiger's age. In the meantime, guys, I'm getting bored. When Tiger falters in a major, that's your chance, oh sharers of the distant second tier of golf nobility. I miss being interested in every major no matter who was in contention. I miss when you could talk credibly about the number 2-5 golfers in the world and could figure that if Tiger had an off week, one or two of them would be duking it out. Yang's victory today, while admirable, did nothing to make pro golf more interesting. Paddy Harrington winning may have, but I guess we can thank those schmoes with the stopwatches at Firestone for so screwing with his mind as to put him all the way out of commission even a week later.

Sigh.

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Friday, August 14, 2009

The Healthcare Backlash

I've been amused at the continuous and daily coverage of the various town hall verbal beatdowns as the healthcare reform debate approaches a crescendo. Amused and appreciative for the many conservatives who are getting their voice heard. Amused and disappointed that said conservatives are getting lambasted by media and congressmen alike.

Just another example of the media/liberal bias, right?

As always, WSJ's James Taranto has a unique and entertaining perspective. He compares the media coverage differences in the hate-filled Bush protests of 2002 to the Obamacare rebellion of 2009. Obviously the liberal media has chosen to cover these two major protest movements quite differently. From Taranto:

To some extent the discrepancies in coverage are defensible as a matter of news judgment. A left-wing protest is a dog-bites-man story; screaming, chanting and carrying obnoxious signs is simply what those people do. On the right, by contrast, there is no tradition of such demonstrations--with the notable exception of the antiabortion movement--so that when one (or many) materializes, it represents a genuine phenomenon.

The protests outside the presidential appearance are of more interest in 2009 than in 2002 precisely because the protests of 2009 are so much more meaningful than those of '02. Whereas anti-Bush protesters were an incidental nuisance, the entire purpose of President Obama's "town hall" was to answer the protests that have swept the nation.


You gotta love Taranto. I think a fair-minded liberal has to admit that the angry lib with the hate-filled Bush sign is the loud-mouthed guy who is always atalkin' while these angry conservatives are likely first timers speaking out. Maybe they are the same group as the antiabortionists, but even then, as Taranto states, we're talking about phenomenon rather than commonplace.

Also, I love the fact that people are using Obama's town hall tactic against him.

And about the democratic congressmen who are trying to destroy and suppress these vocal rebels, is it fair to call someone out who is justifiably (and legally) speaking their mind on a critical issue?

Aren't the Pelosis and Specters of the world hypocrites for saying these people are unamerican and should shut up? (I'm paraphrasing.)

Well, I'd have to answer no and yes, respectively, to those questions but at the same time isn't that what conservatives were doing to liberals who spoke out against the war in Iraq? Isn't this just our conservative chickens coming home to roost?

That, too, I have to admit, is a bit amusing.

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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

My Personal Portfolio Strategy


With my recent warnings and worrying about the direction of the market, I thought I'd answer the question, "Considering my overall bearish look on the economy, what are you doing with your money, and are you getting burned by the market continuing its upward march?"

As the DJIA moved past the 8000 mark, I started leveraging up heavily in the stock market. I have some generous losses from early in the year that I realized, so I'm looking to zero out my capital gains for the year. (You are taxed on your total realized gains over the year so if you have an early loss you can essentially trade tax free for the remainder of the year.) My account at Tradeking allows me to borrow up to the amount of my account for some extra juice in my trading. That means if I have $5,000 I can buy $10,000 worth of stocks. I also have been putting as much money as I could afford into the account because these moves up happen once every 20 years.

Enough background. What have I been doing? I've had my money stashed in some very high yield ETFs. They qualify as high yield because they pay out a 10%+ dividend over course of a year. These particular ETFs buy stocks and use options to get extra returns and pay out monthly or quarterly dividends. I've been using DPO, IGD, IRR, and JNK. Since they are trading in the 10-12 dollar a share range their 16 cent monthly dividend was very attractive to me. They are very volatile, so I have to watch them very closely with tight stops (automatic sell orders if price goes past a certain point). Since I believe the market will soon be heading down, I capture gains when they reach a certain threshold, sell and wait for the stock to head down where I buy back in.

This sort of active trading is generally not something I would do, and with the market heading straight up, it can be argued that I would have been better off just leaving my money in those stocks and letting it grow. In a normal world I would.

This is how my total investment allocation looks, I've put the yield in parenthesis:
DPO - High yield(16%), tracks Dow Jones average and sells covered calls
IGD - High yield (15%), global stocks
IRR - High yield (10%), Energy companies
OIL - Oil tracking ETF, probably will ditch this in favor of more IRR
JNK - High yield (13%) corporate bonds
VYM - S&P weighted to dividend payout (3.2%)
VGT - High tech
VWO - Emerging markets
HCN - Health care REIT, this owns health care properties and pays out dividends (7%)
TIP - Inflation protected securities, when inflation goes up, this goes up
SH - Inverse of S&P 500

You can see at the end there, that is my safety for a stock market dip. I have been slowly starting to build my SH position ever since the Dow crossed 9000. Generally portfolio theory searches for stocks/assets that are not correlated so when one does bad the other doesn't do as bad. Gold and silver are commonly considered good for this as they do well when the stock market tanks. Well this beauty of an ETF actually goes opposite over a short period of time. When/if the market tanks in a couple months, this will go through the roof. I can adjust how much I have based on how bad I think the economy will go, currently I'm at about 10% of my total holdings in it.

What does all this mean to you the reader? Probably nothing. I wouldn't recommend you taking my approach, investing is about doing what you feel comfortable with. As you can see I love dividends and those regular deposits in my account. I've turned away from options, futures, and all that. I might as well let the professionals handle that and invest in their funds.

If anyone wants a Tradeking account, let me know and I can get us both 50 bucks by sending you an invite. $4.95 per trade, plus you sound very smart when you can drop that at parties that Tradeking is your online broker. You're a KING of TRADING.

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About to Start B School: Seeking Advice

Some of our authors and several contributors/readers have been to graduate school or are currently there. Others intend to go. Still others may never go but have worked with enough graduates to have an opinion or two about grad school or business school or her graduates. (Some opinions maybe not so hot :)

My days between job and school are dwindling fast and as I wrap up my 'to-do' list and get ready to start I thought I would open up the forum for your advice.

If you've been to any kind of graduate school or are currently enrolled, what are some of the things you are glad you did? (be it a networking habit you had or a study habit or a strategy, anything at all.)

Similarly, what are some things you wish you would have done differently or avoided altogether?

If you have been to business school specifically, what are your words of warning or your secrets to success?

At least a few of you are on the recruiting side of things now, what advice and opinions do you have on the internship and job search process?

For those who've observed close friends, family, or associates do the grad school thing, what's something you've observed or what are some suggestions you have?

Looking for any and all angles here.


A few facts about the school I'm in, just to give you a bit of a picture:

  • roughly 320 students in my class
  • class is broken into 5 sections for the first year curriculum
  • everyone is in a learning team of 5 students (one from every section on the team)
  • purpose of learning team is to review cases/homework prior to and immediately after classes
  • 4th quarter of first year and all of second year is elective-based as opposed to pre-scheduled/prescribed curriculum

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Morale Booster: The Double Whammy

As much as we'd all like to believe differently, not the least of whom is POTUS, the economy still ain't booming. Managers are still faced with the difficult choices of paring down the work force, cutting pay across the board, or the like. Somehow managers need to keep morale up during these tough economic times.

Here's how the best IT department in the world boosted morale at my old job:

A little thing called "The Double Whammy" aka "Kablamo."

The game is simple you have a six-sided die and you pick someone to challenge. You roll the die and if the Double Whammy is rolled, that person has to take the challenge.

Here are a few pics, courtesy of my friend Bob, just to give you an idea what it looks like:

That's a shot of the die.


Above is a shot of the four dead sides. Nothing happens if this is rolled.

Above is a shot of the Double Whammy/Kablamo side. This is where the action happens!

Best of all, there's a flip flop side (opposite the Kablamo side of the die) that turns the challenge right back around at you if you're the one who made the original challenge. Beware the flip flop when you propose a challenge :)

Now, this all may sound bland on the surface. A stupid little die? How is that a morale booster.

Well, just apply your creativity to the challenges and that's where the fun starts.

Some of my favorites that happened at the office:

  • striding through the main office with arms outstretched like an airplane while buzzing loudly to sound like an airplane.
  • singing "I'm a little teacup" outside the CFO's office.
  • two dudes walking down the main hallway holding hands. (the CEO happened to walk by them while they were doing this which was absolutely hysterical)
  • have the female former college athlete crush a large piece of styrofoam while yelling, "NOBODY MESSES WITH ME!!"
  • slapping an executive on the butt and say "Good game" as you walk by.
  • welcoming the founder back from an extended vacay with a big bear hug and a "Welcome Back Ray!!!" (that's one I had to do).
  • eating a piece of licorice that was underneath the copy machine for more than a year.
  • eating a gallon of ice cream in 20 minutes.

As you can imagine, tailoring the challenge to the specific person adds an element to the game.

Fortunately for the IT group, and for all of us at the office, the executives got a kick out of the Double Whammy and played along. I'm pretty sure the CEO had no choice but to play along once he saw two dudes holding hands and asked them with a quizzical look, "Everything alright there guys?"

Don't let the economy getchya down. Take office morale by the horns and liven up your office.











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Saturday, August 8, 2009

Weekend Comedy

This is a funny blog post I found. The blogger examines the "angry mobs" showing up at town halls. Make sure to send notice to Team Obama about these rabble rousers.

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Friday, August 7, 2009

Ch-Ch-Ch-Chia!

I can't believe this is real. Honestly, if this were a joke, created by some unhinged nazi-conservative, like me, the cries of RAAAAACISM would be deafening. But really, this has got to be the absolute best piece of Obamarchandise I have seen yet. Perhaps you have seen the TV ad? I get giddy every time it comes on during my nightly Baseball Tonight debriefing:



Fantastic!

The best part is that I already know what to get all of my fellow TTKS authors for Christmas!

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Bull Market et tu?

It's Friday, so I will bury these scary 2 pictures on a day when our readership is about 70% of what it is during the week (people must be using their break time to browse to us...)



This first one has the 1929 crash with the current one tracing it. The current rally is almost IDENTICAL to what the depression experienced in terms of length and magnitude.




This happy looking chart demonstrates why things aren't nearly as rosy as everyone thinks. Earnings have been horrible, it will take a long time to recover especially with unemployment over 10% (and people that aren't employed tend to be poor consumers, which is the major driver of our economy) and those that are employed are paying down their debt at a rapidly increasing rate. (Less debt means less consumption)

I got the graphs from this post, but the ideas are those that have been floating around in the crowd I run with. I just thought I'd pass them along.

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Thursday, August 6, 2009

Tolerable Imperfections

I seem to remember Sam posting something back in 2008 bemoaning the idea that the increase in airport security has diminished our freedom. That seemed to be the Left's go-to argument after the Iraq issue: "Homeland security is eliminating freedom! It's too much! We've gone too far!" (I'm paraphrasing).

And maybe he and the Left were right.

However, what is interesting to me is that the more we get to see Mr. Obama in action, the more apparent--as in crystal clear apparent--that his policies and his agenda do exactly what airport security measures do: infringe upon our freedom. And with all that Obama is doing, 'infringe' is a mild term. Indeed, it is ironic that the Left's anointed one is trying to cut away at even more freedoms than those diminished when you're trying to catch a flight.

Props to my mum for forwarding this piece from Tommy Sowell that sheds more light on the issue.

It's a short article and I highly recommend reading it in full, but here are a few of my thoughts.

Sometimes I get caught up in talking about the ideal rather than the real. I think most politicians fall into the same trap, maybe you do too. But the danger in talking about the ideal is that we lose sight of the fact that we are designed to battle, even tolerate, some level of imperfection in our lives and in our institutions. We simply can't have it all. Not now. Not in this life.

When the Founding Fathers convened, establishing a more perfect union was the goal. Not a perfect one.

So when our politicians on either side of the aisle start claiming the ability to solve our troubles and the imperfections of life, they are fueling the fire that is burning down what the founding fathers built.

Sowell breaks it down by calling it Utopia versus Freedom. The Fathers didn't want Utopia. They wanted Freedom. Obama, as all indications show, wants Utopia. He wants an America where you cars don't pollute, your health care don't cost, and your poop don't stank. Pardon my French.

Seriously, what he is fighting for is utterly unattainable. For example, let's work to minimize poverty and help those who are starting well behind the average starting line, but let's not be so bold as to think that we can eliminate poverty anymore than we can eliminate terror. By the way, both will require a higher power to eliminate, so let's stick with minimizing before we go after eliminating. Some poverty and some terror will exist on this earth and in our country.

In short, and this is the crux of the Sowell article as well as my post, we need to learn to tolerate certain imperfections. Having a system that requires you to work for your gain, with the understanding that not everyone will gain at the same rate, or even gain at all, is an effective system. There is inherent failure and if said failures and imperfections are removed/prevented then we all lose.

If we think and hope that our politicians can remove our individual and institutional imperfections then we will eventually be controlled and handled in a freedom-less state. We will no longer be our own.

Sowell says it more succinctly: "If you cannot tolerate imperfections, be prepared to kiss your freedom goodbye."

Amen Brother Sowell. Amen.

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Is failure an option?

Failure wasn't an option for Bush in Iraq. He responded by changing leadership, changing tactics, and doubling the efforts. It will be interesting to see how Obama responds to the prospect of failure in his administration. He is getting creamed on the health care issue, the cap and trade bill is only getting less attention because of the resistance to health care, and his stimulus debacle.

Can he change leadership, change tactics, and double his efforts? He hasn't done a good job selling his policies. He has spent a lot of time in front TV cameras, but most of that time is spent blaming the Republicans and Bush for everything. Is the leadership right on his team? I'm not sure his so-called "Team of Rivals" thing is really working. (As an aside, how come we don't hear about how Lincoln-esque his cabinet is anymore?) Bush could have spent time blaming Democrats for his problems. They were certainly making life difficult for him. He didn't though, he recognized that leaders have to lead. He didn't have the oratory skills of Obama, but he knew how to get things done.

Does Obama know how to get things done? All evidence points to "No."

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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Mountain Bike Economics




I like racing my mountain bike. Mostly because it is fun. But there are certain life lessons that are learned, or at least demonstrated in a mountain bike race. Unlike traditional road cycling, mountain biking is very much an individual pursuit. There are no team members to tuck behind, no one to pace or pull you up the mountain, and certainly no team car trailing in tow, ready to replace a tire or hand you food at a moments notice. You are, during a mountain bike race, alone.

Last weekend I raced in the Intermountain Cup season finale. The Intermountain Cup (ICUP) is a series of races in Utah and Wyoming. We start racing in March and continue on throughout the summer. Individual points are accumulated, based on results, and like NASCAR racers, we all compete for the overall series victory. Congratulations are in order to my long time racing rival and friend, and frequent TTKS commenter Stupidbike for his overall win in the Expert 40+ division. Well done.

After the race on Saturday I spoke to the series director about ways he could make the races more fair, more competitive, to redistribute the results. He was a little surprised, given that I have been racing these events for nearly a decade, and had never brought up such concerns before. But he decided to hear me out.

I suggested that after each race he ought to equalize the results by taking the slower finishing times and adding them to the winners results. It would take a little massaging of the numbers, but in the end he could spread the numbers around to make it so each and every finisher had the same result. After all, the primary reason we are all "racing" is only to enjoy ourselves, to have fun. Needless to say he was skeptical.

He said, with more than a little doubt in his voice, "but what about all those who are training day in and day out who work so hard to win these races?" I thought on that for a minute, and replied to him that "we are all trying our best. Everyone one of us is working hard out on the course. We all want to win." Of course that is not entirely true. There are riders who put a lot more time on the bike than I do. They watch their diets more closely, they train smarter and harder, they are more skilled, and have better genes. But that should not matter. Fair is fair, and equalizing our results would be fair. Right?

In fact, why keep score at all? After each race we could all just gather together and talk about how wonderful it was to be out on the trail with our friends. Like a group ride, our races would be more social than competitive.

Of course, I did not really have this conversation with our race director. And if I had he would have laughed in my face. In all my years of racing I have never met anyone who would think that redistributing the results of these races would be a good idea. Even the most liberal racers I know, even my friend with the communist star tattooed on his arm and the hammer and sickle jersey would not think this a sound idea. And really, doing so would be completely unfair, not only to the fastest riders, but to everyone. Eliminating or equalizing the results would result in a combined and mass mediocrity. Without the incentive to be better, faster, more excellent, then nobody would be better, faster or more excellent. The series would become the Canada of bike races. And in the process everyone of us would be robbed of that incredible feeling of achievment and satisfaction at having improved, at winning.

And yet, this is exactly what congress would like to do with our economy. This redistribution of results, through social programs, taxes, rhetorical class warfare is destroying our culture. Slowly perhaps, but nonetheless. Barack Obama and his congressional yes-men want no man to be "faster" than the next. Regardless of talent and work ethic and intelligence and yes, even dumb luck, nobody should be allowed to win. After all, if there are winners then there are invariably losers.

The unintended consequence is the wholesale dumbing down of our economic and cultural excellence. This is not new. Obama is not the first politician to try and alter "all men are created equal" to "all men must turn out equal". But the United States was not founded on the guaranteed equalization of outcomes. It was founded on the equal opportunity that each of us has to fail. Or succeed. To race, and to win.

Just like in mountain bike racing, each of us must make our own way around the course. There are things to help and assist in this. Course markings, volunteer marshals, EMTs, and neutral feed stations. We are welcome to pre-ride the courses, to study them, practice them, and to "dial them in". The same is true of our own careers, our lives, our hopes and dreams.

I have been reading an excellent book called Lone Survivor, about the experience in Afghanistan of one Navy SEAL team. The author recounts the intense training they endured in order to become a Navy SEAL (the training they go through makes the whole waterboarding controversy look pitiful and petty). He recalls that the instructors often said that they are not the people who will decide who passes and who fails. "You are" they said. "You decide".

The greatest opportunity a government can provide, or protect, for its citizens has nothing to do with affordable cars or insurance. It has nothing to do with taxing soda or cigarettes. The greatest opportunity our government can provide is to simply respect and trust us all enough to let us alone.

Let us decide.

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Monday, August 3, 2009

In case you ever travel across the U.S. by car...

Hey-oh! Bitner's back. I have enjoyed reading from my phone as Adam and Ryan tag-team this blog with money posts. I've been itching to write but either didn't have a computer or simply couldn't justify the time when boxes needed to be unpacked. Well, for now, the boxes can wait.

Without further ado, here are some random thoughts, observations, opinions, etc about moving across the country:

(Note: they are numbered for convenience, not because there is some heirarchy or order.)

  1. It is really amazing how much people are willing to do to help you when you are in need. Meals. Packing the truck. A bed to sleep in while ours are packed in the truck. Unreal. I've felt a little of that in the short time after my wife had a baby (and btw, congrats Ryan), but never to this extent. Uh-mazing.
  2. There is A LOT of land in this country. Lots of pristine land. Lots of farmland. Lots of land. Enough and to spare, one might say.
  3. GPS devices are both genius and painfully frustrating. On a couple occasions we took the GPS-suggested route and lost a lot of time. Granted, it saved us enough times to make up for it, but still. I don't know much about where we're headed with the GPS technology but I could definitely see the day when we have a little feed that allows Moms and Dads to track the vehicle to the point where you could log on and say, "Yep, they just passed a semi truck in the middle of Kansas."
  4. Speaking of Kansas, oh my boring. So, too, is Wyoming. The latter is drab and uninteresting. The former is just flat and monotonous. Wish I could've avoided both of those states. No offense.
  5. As we said good-bye to friends, someone made the comment that it is easier to leave than be left behind. I guess I hadn't ever entertained that thought before. I think it's easier to be left behind because your routines don't change and life continues on almost exactly as the day before. The packing and upacking, the long drive, the new city and roads are all part of the exciting new adventure, but I wouldn't say it's easier than being left behind.
  6. I miss my IT guys. One of the things I loved about my old job was the IT department. Best bunch of nerd friends in the world. I miss the IT security blanket, but not nearly as much as I miss them. I will say it has been satisfying to figure out some of this IT stuff on my own, without Sebas and the guys to help me out.
  7. Religion is still a major part of this country, despite the perception created by many. We saw a billboard on some farmland that read, "No God, No Peace. Know God, Know Peace." Cute lil quip there, but stuff like that appears on the bumpers of cars and on the marquees of churches around the country. This is a country founded by religious people and religion hasn't left.
  8. Speaking of religion, the LDS Church has done a fantastic job of upgrading the visitor's centers at Liberty, MO; Nauvoo, IL; Kirtland, OH; and Palmyra, NY. Do yourself a favor and make yourself a visitor.
  9. What is with varying speed limits on the highways? Half the states we crossed had border-to-border turnpikes that charge you some nominal toll and then cap the speed at 55 mph. 55 MPH!!! Ridiculous. Dude, if you're gonna charge me $6 at least let me go 70. Come on. Upstate New York had some winding roads in the finger lakes region with a 55 speed limit and then we get out on the actual interstate and they only bump it up to 65? Really? Just 10 mph difference and we're now driving on flat, straight highway?
  10. And while I'm venting about highways, I can't let this go unmentioned: I saw with my own eyes the roads in northestern Missouri that are being improved under the audacious American Reinvestment & Recovery Act. Did I just jack up that name? How could I after seeing a dozen of the signs staged on the roadways? My bad. But it's good to see that the most unpopulated parts of our country are getting new roads.
  11. The funniest thing I saw on our trip (just edging out seeing my 18-month old eat the sand from one of those standing ash trays) was the construction road sign that reads as follows: "Hit a worker $10,000 fine. Plus 14 years in jail." I regret not pulling over and getting a picture of it. Actually, I regret not pulling over and taking it down and keeping it for a souvenier. Maybe Obama will hold off raising taxes on the middle class because he is raising tax revenue by fining drivers who knock off his reinvestment road workers. (Disclaimer, obviously, hitting someone with your vehicle deserves much more than a fine, but it's just funny that the the fine is so prominent on the sign.)
  12. ABF U-Pack is the way to go. I'm so glad I didn't have to drive a moving truck. Let them do the driving while you go enjoy Kansas in the comfort of your own cramped, overpacked car. Your bottom side will be sore either way. It might as well be sore while you are in your car, stopping to stay with friends and see the country.
  13. I really wish I had the time and money to do a baseball stadium tour.

This post saved a road worker's life, preventing a job from opening.

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Picking Up the Tab




The Obama White House is having trouble picking up the tabs of its lunch and dinner guests. Recently, a few high profile CEOs and corporate heavy-hitters were invtied to dine at the White House. But before doing so they were asked for their credit card information (like every thing else Obama does, this was unprecedented). The snort-worthy excuse, issued by the the White House was that they wanted to avoid any appearance of a conflict of interest. Right. Of course. This administration is completely conflict-of-interest-free.

The real reason? They are out of money. I know! Shocking!

...The Obama Administration in its first 200 days may have burned through much of its budgets for the Executive Residence and the White House's annual entertainment account. "We've done a lot more entertaining than previous administrations have," says the White House aide. "The whispering here is that we're over budget and where we can, we're trying to save money."


Remember all the Wednesday Night cocktail parties? The Superbowl bash, the Stevie Wonder and Earth Wind and Fire concerts, the swanky governors dinner and Michelle's "girl's night"? So do I. And who could forget the luau for the sycophants from the media, complete with food, drinks, games and a dunk tank?

Apparently Barack Obama cannot even responsibly manage the White House entertainment budget. I'd hate to think what he'd do with a slightly more important, more significant, and somewhat larger amount of money.

You don't think he'd squander it away do you?

Naaahhhh. Of course not.

Oh, and it also appears that this unprecedented, transformational president has set himself up for his very own "read my lips" moment. I can still hear the chants of "Obama Obama Obama" when the light worker, over and over said that "you will not see any of your taxes increase one single dime." Ah, those halcyon days of the campaign, untethered to reality and where promises flowed like the swallows of Capistrano. Or something.

President Barack Obama's treasury secretary said Sunday he cannot rule out higher taxes to help tame an exploding budget deficit, and his chief economic adviser would not dismiss raising them on middle-class Americans as part of a health care overhaul.


But not to worry. Barack Obama is soaking the wealthy, ensuring that it is they who feel the sting of economic incompetence most acutely. After all, as Milton Friedman liked to say, there is no such thing as a free lunch.



This post saved or created the jobs at the White House lunch room.

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Sunday, August 2, 2009

Vital Importance




To those that are as interested in this as I am, here is further analysis passed along by Benson

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